A Will Triadic Closure Strengthen Ties in Social Networks?

The social triad—a group of three people—is one of the simplest and most fundamental social groups. Extensive network and social theories have been developed to understand its structure, such as triadic closure and social balance. Over the course of a triadic closure—the transition from two ties to three among three users, the strength dynamics of its social ties, however, are much less well understood. Using two dynamic networks from social media and mobile communication, we examine how the formation of the third tie in a triad affects the strength of the existing two ties. Surprisingly, we find that in about 80% social triads, the strength of the first two ties are weakened although averagely the tie strength in the two networks maintains an increasing or stable trend. We discover that 1) the decrease in tie strength among three males is more sharply than that among females, and 2) the tie strength between celebrities are more likely to be weakened as the closure of a triad than those between ordinary people. Further, we formalize a triadic tie strength dynamics prediction problem to infer whether social ties of a triad will become weakened after its closure. We propose a TRIST method—a kernel density estimation (KDE) based graphical model—to solve the problem by incorporating user demographics, temporal effects, and structural information. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TRIST offers a greater than 82% potential predictability for inferring triadic tie strength dynamics in both networks. The leveraging of the kernel density estimation and structural correlations enables TRIST to outperform baselines by up to 30% in terms of F1-score.